Déjà Vu all over again?
The December 8, 2003 announcement by Intel of an (Intel-funded) Itanium 2-based server "try-and-buy" program for qualifying Global 500 companies prompted this look back twenty years; an excerpt follows: ". . . . In 1981, Intel announced a revolutionary new microprocessor family called the iAPX-432 MicroMainframe. The iAPX-432 had a very advanced capability-based architecture, with hardware and microcode support for multitasking, multiprocessing, and fault tolerance. . . . Unfortunately the raw computing performance of the iAPX-432 proved to be below that of competing microprocessors, and Intel discontinued the iAPX-432 product line in 1986." Today, run-of-the-mill "industry standard" multiprocessor systems exceed the performance of much more costly Itanium-based servers!
Server Industry Consolidation
[presciently written in mid-2002.]
The June 2001 final Inside the New Computer Industry editorial forecast consolidation of the server supplier industry around IBM, Sun and the IA-based rest. This trend accelerated the following month with the announcement that HP and Compaq would merge, these two former market leaders having fallen into each other's arms in the forlorn hope that each would rescue the other. Ten months later, in just about the worst possible outcome, the merger vote finally squeaked through, giving middle level managers at both companies an excuse to sabotage the deal. The union has accelerated the decline of both companies as they attempt to deal with the issues associated with combining their operations instead of the problems that each faces in the marketplace. Meanwhile, Itanium remains a mirage: The characteristic of a mirage that it is an illusion which remains a constant distance away from the observer, and the volume deployment of Itanium systems certainly qualifies. One significant result of the lack of volume is the Microsoft support for the AMD 64-bit extension to the IA-32 architecture. IBM has also become more forthright about it's lack of enthusiasm for Itanium and interest in the AMD approach (which provides a graceful upgrade path for 32-bit applications). IBM is a leader in the IA server market, and will supply Itanium systems if and when it's customers demand them but not before, leaving Hewlett-Packard, which has nailed its Itanium colors to the mast, on the rocks. The Itanium debacle and Sun's extraordinary failure to address the Linux issue coherently provide IBM with an opportunity to regain its former dominance of the server market.
Why Open Source?
On-going Internet worm and virus attacks and the never-ending "Security Updates" continue to draw attention to the inherent vulnerabilities of the Windows operating systems and further increase interest in both Linux and Open Source software in general. The real vulnerabilities of Windows, however, remain it's intrinsic lack of robustness and the contempt in which Microsoft holds its long-suffering users. In the words of Brian Valentine, SVP Windows Development at Microsoft: "I'm not proud. We really haven't done everything we could to protect our customers. Our products just aren't engineered for security [emphasis added]."
The September, 2001 issue of Bull Infrastructure & Systems' Management & Information Systems quarterly, dedicated to the topic of "The Open Source Alternative," includes a splendid article entitled The Advantages of Open Source for the Enterprise. Another article worth reading by those evaluating the viability of the Open Source Software business model can be found here.